Ford (NYSE: F) is the last of the "Big" Three standing on its own two feet. Chrysler and General Motors (OTC: GMGMQ) are on crutches supplied by the federal government. While they're both still upright, those crutches are mighty expensive (the government will own 60% of GM when it emerges from bankruptcy).
Speaking of bankruptcy, Chrysler is already on the other side and now a partner with Fiat. That was perhaps the fastest legal action ever seen. Usually bankruptcy takes between 18 months to two years before a new company emerges.
That wasn't the case with Chrysler, nor will it be for GM. It's not in the government's best interest to have a protracted GM bankruptcy. The sooner it emerges as the "new" GM, the faster it has the potential to make money. Whether it can is another question. But the usual drawn out legal proceedings (having to do with creditors and how much each one gets) will not be part of the GM deal. All creditors have agreed to their settlement amounts. Look for GM to be out of the court system within weeks, not months. When it emerges, will it be competitive? It's a whole new ballgame with the government looking over management's shoulders and being involved in major decisions as to what cars to build and what advertising to use, etc. Do you like the way the federal government is run now? Wait until they take control of GM and see how well that works.
So that leaves Ford, the blue oval. It still is printing red ink. But it doesn't have any government money. It's free and clear from government managerial interference. Of course, it still has regulatory issues, but those are different from day to day decisions as to what models to build and where to allocate funds. Ford is free to choose. Of course, if you look at its track record, that could be troubling. It's managed to lose market share year after year after year. Now there's an opportunity to regain some of that as its two normal rivals have been shaken to their very plants. And it has a new CEO: Alan Mulally who has been very right about raising capital when he could and selling certain assets that weren't profitable. He's making a positive difference.
But as we all know, the car business is not just about Chrysler and GM. There's also Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM) and Nissan (NASDAQ: NSANY) and Honda (NYSE: HMC) from Japan (though many of these cars and SUVs are now made in the U.S. ... the parent is headquartered in Japan and that's where the money ends up). South Korea has entered full force with Hyundai and its Genesis sedans and coupes, both big hits and big bargains. Then there's one more giant lurking offshore: the Chinese. They can't wait to get here and start selling their Geeleys and Cherys. The Beijing auto show was where several new models were introduced by global manufacturers, a first for many of them. The Chinese love their cars, and they're building lots of them. They're happy to build more for us.
Another element to consider: the auto suppliers have been decimated by Chrysler and GM's demise. They also make seats and radios and tires and many parts for Ford cars. And if some go out of business from lack of volume, then Ford will have to scurry to find replacements, never an easy task, especially if a company has supplied parts for many years. The learning curve for getting the shipments right and on time is long and frustrating.
Ford is still running its plants, looking to add capacity to help fill the vacuum that GM and Chrysler will leave, at least for a while. That has to mean more sales, at least in the short run, doesn't it? True enough for the sales part but not necessarily for Ford. Toyota and all the other manufacturers are going after the same customer. And the vacuum won't be too large because the models GM and Chrysler will eliminate are the ones not selling well. Their numbers have declined for many years. They weren't competitive so they had to go. The vacuum may not be as large as some would think.
One more element: car nuts, the people who buy new cars every year or every couple of years. They are emotional about their purchases, not rational. A car is not just a car to them. They are in love with their cars. With that emotional bonding, it's hard for a car manufacturer to get them to switch brands. In other words, if you've fallen in love with the new Camaro, you're not going to buy a Mustang. They're two completely different cars, at least in style. One appeals to some, but not the other. No amount of advertising will convince a buyer otherwise. How large is this group? Hard to put a number on them, but it is large.
Even in bankruptcy, GM and Chrysler are making cars and will continue to do so. Are their warranties worth anything? The government says they are, backing them up with its own guarantee. That should keep the Chevy and Jeep buyers coming to the showrooms, but it's a question every buyer is asking. Ford doesn't have that concern.
Furthermore, Ford is the most eco-friendly producer, making more hybrid models than any other manufacturer. If consumers want green cars, Ford has more choices. However, if gas stays below $3 a gallon, it's already been shown that hybrids are worth only a glance as customers head for the cars and trucks with powerful, gas swilling engines. People may voice their concern for the planet, their desire for electric cars, but their wallets are opening for cars and trucks that sound and drive like what they're used to.
Ford is definitely in better shape than GM and Chrysler. That's obvious. But whether it can capitalize on the current opportunity is another. All other non-government aided manufacturers are going after the same customer. And if hybrids really are what customers want, Ford will benefit. It seems hybrids are if gas prices are high. If gas goes up again, that will certainly help Ford.
The stock is trading around $6 a share, well above its low of $1.01 hit on June 2 of last year. That's up 500% in a year. Considering that analysts see a loss of $2.35 this year and 39 cents loss next year, the stock may well be ahead of the numbers. Its book value is negative $6.12 a share. Add those other two years of losses, if analysts are correct, and its book value goes to a negative $8.86. It takes a lot of faith in hybrids and market share growth to justify Ford at this time.
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