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Thursday, July 9, 2009

3 Reasons to Be Scared of These Stocks

Veteran Global Gains members know what we love about China. There's tremendous potential upside there, with many cheap stocks ready to explode in value -- especially among smaller companies.

We can never emphasize enough, however, the dangers that lurk in the world's most populous country -- the nasty traits of some Chinese businesses that make us fear and loathe them.

An emerging giant
There are more than 2,000 public companies in China. About 450 are listed in the U.S., with that number growing all the time. And many of them are future multibaggers that will make their shareholders rich. Look around and you'll find businesses such as Universal Travel Group up nearly 300% just this year alone.

But we can't pretend these types of winners are easy to find. If you don't know the lay of the land -- the ins and outs of Chinese political structure -- you could quite literally lose a fortune.

Here are just three of the problems to be on the lookout for:

1. Hard-to-decipher financials. The Economist magazine sums it up better than I can:

The financial results of companies that global investors wish to buy into can be as unintelligible as the dialect spoken in the company town. It is said (with apparent sincerity) that some Chinese firms keep several sets of books -- one for the government, one for company records, one for foreigners and one to report what is actually going on.

In fairness, this was written a couple of years ago and Chinese financials are a bit easier to understand now. And there's no doubt that American companies also do not make available the books we'd really like to see. Even the ones we can see aren't necessarily easy to decipher -- look no further than Citigroup (NYSE: C) for a perfect example. I'll never forget one of my colleagues expressing admiration for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), while at the same time admitting he didn't know exactly what was on its balance sheet -- and this is one of the few financial giants that held up well in the credit crisis.

But there's little question that we simply can't get the same lucidity and transparency from Chinese companies that we do from domestic firms.

2. Questionable quality of earnings. Quality of earnings refers to the extent to which financial reporting can be trusted. The more conservative management is with its assumptions, the better we feel about the numbers it reports. A 2008 Barron's article relayed a pretty sobering study from RateFinancials, an independent firm that rates financial reports. Looking at the five largest recent Chinese IPOs -- including LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) and Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) -- RateFinancials found problems with "big increases in receivables, negative operating and free-cash flows, significant amounts of deferred revenues, major prepayments, and sizable long-term commitments to suppliers."

3. Poor corporate governance. China is "perceived to routinely engage in bribery when doing business abroad," according to Transparency International. And in TI's 2008 corruption report, the country falls well below any comfortable level, ranking 72nd. That doesn't mean every Chinese company is dicey, of course. India ranks 85th on the list, but for every fraudulent Satyam (NYSE: SAY), there's a shareholder-friendly outfit like HDFC Bank. But it's yet another risk to watch out for.

To sum it up, our Global Gains team warns that "Shareholders of Chinese companies should know that there is no real apparatus by which their interests are protected and that they are essentially betting on being on the same side as management and the majority shareholders -- who as often as not are branches of the government, the military, and/or the Communist Party."

And yet ...
Still, China's vast potential cannot be ignored, and investing indirectly through huge multinationals like General Electric (NYSE: GE) and ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) won't cut it. China is a small part of these companies' businesses; to realize the greatest potential from China's growth, you'll need to look to the domestic companies.

We recommend some China exposure as a part of any balanced portfolio. That's why we travel to the country yearly and headed off again earlier this week to meet with several companies and some prominent investors. 

These meetings -- the ability to sit at the same table as management and see the business operations with our own eyes -- allow us to separate the good from the bad, and the quality from the corrupt.

Uncovering a double
In 2008, China Fire & Security Group seemed to have it all. Revenue had doubled in two years, the country's market for fire safety products was huge, and several high-profile industrial accidents had pressured the government to crack down on safety violators. To top it off, the government enlisted China Fire itself to help write safety legislation. Talk about the fox guarding the henhouse!

But there was a hitch: The excellent website ShareSleuth.com had blasted China Fire for some less-than-stellar corporate structure and ownership issues, and the share price had cratered 60%.

We were fortunate, however, that our Global Gains analysts had actually visited the China Fire headquarters, touring the factory and chatting in detail with management. They were convinced the company was working earnestly to address the issues, and that the beaten-down stock price was a real bargain rather than a harbinger of further deterioration. They recommended the stock in May 2008, and it more than doubled before it was sold for valuation reasons.

3 Stocks Ready to Roar

There are plenty of strategies for picking stock winners: For example, you can look for low-P/E stocks, or you can seek out companies selling at a discount to their future cash flows. At the small-cap stock-picking service Motley Fool Hidden Gems, our analysts are able to stay ahead of the market -- even in the current environment -- by finding undervalued stocks that have gone ignored.

Yet what if we could find a way to whittle down our list of prospects beforehand and find those whose engines are just getting warmed up?

Using the investor-intelligence database of Motley Fool CAPS, I screened for stocks that were marked up by investors before their stocks began to move up over the past three months, in a market that has headed south in a dramatic fashion. My screen returned 93 stocks when I ran it and included these recent winners:

Stock

CAPS Rating 1/7/09 (Out of 5)

CAPS Rating 4/7/09

Trailing-

13-Week Performance

Cell Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CTIC)

**

***

284.2%

Isilon Systems (Nasdaq: ISLN)

**

***

73.2%

Jackson Hewitt Tax Service (NYSE: JTX)

**

***

4.4%

Source: Motley Fool CAPS screener; trailing performance from April 9 to July 7.

Jackson Hewitt, in fact, was previously picked as a stock ready to run, and I featured it in October. So while the screen above tells us which stocks we should have looked at three months ago, it would be more helpful to see  the stocks  we ought to be looking at today. I went back to the screener and looked for stocks that were just bumped up to three stars or better, that boast attractive valuations, and that sport a price increase of more than 10% over the past month. 

Here are three out of the 41 possible stocks that investors in the CAPS community seem to think are ready to run today:

Stock

CAPS Rating 4/7/09

CAPS Rating 7/7/09

Trailing-4-Week Performance

P/E Ratio

HQ Sustainable Maritime Industries (NYSE: HQS)

**

*****

(3.9%)

8.9

EnPro Industries (NYSE: NPO)

**

***

(15.7%)

8.0

M&F Worldwide (NYSE: MFW)

**

***

(26.8%)

3.5

Source: Motley Fool CAPS screener; price return from June 12 to July 7.

Though you may get different results, since the data is updated in real time, you can run your own version of this screen. First let's take a look at why investors  think these companies will go on to beat the market.

HQ Sustainable Maritime Industries
HQ Sustainable may be able to capitalize on growing worldwide demand for tilapia. The U.S. is the second-largest market for the healthy "new white fish," after China -- good news for HQ Sustainable, as it serves its toxin-free, natural tilapia to both markets. Industry watchers expect China, including HQ Sustainable, to produce about 40% of the world's supply by 2010. CAPS member Sprint2Me thinks HQ Sustainable can capitalize: "[HQ Sustainable] is a company that can take advantage of healthier trends worldwide while being "green." Also a play on the growing Chinese economy."

EnPro Industries
EnPro Industries, developer of engineered industrial products, has had to contend not only with a contracting economy and an inevitable decline in sales volume, but also with asbestos-related expenses. Its first-quarter profit plummeted by 7% year over year. However, as the economy has recently begun a slower rate of contraction, so EnPro and similar companies, such as MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE: MSM),  are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel. CAPS All-Star Caligiuri writes of EnPro: "Considering Book value, earnings, and market cap ... this should beat the market in 5 years."

M&F Worldwide
Having a diverse business can often act as a defense against decreasing revenues in a specific segment. Yet the hodgepodge of operating units that make up M&F Worldwide (a company that offers check printing, financial services, educational testing services, and licorice!) didn't offer enough of a cushion to stop shares from dropping by more than 50% over the past year. Still, the company managed to turn in higher first-quarter profit as it extinguished debt, reduced interest expenses, and bought back shares. While the result depended heavily on one-time gains, M&F Worldwide should benefit in the future from lower interest expenses.

Three for free
It pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page. Head over to the completely free CAPS service, and let us hear what you have to say about these or any other stocks that you think are starting to rev their engines.

Where You'll Find Today's Best Value Stocks

Many value investors act as though some rule forbids them from looking at companies with growing businesses. Right now, though, ignoring what some would initially characterize as growth stocks could make you miss out on some of the best values in today's stock market.

A popular myth makes many believe that only staid, boring, mature companies make good value candidates. Such companies rarely have strong growth prospects, but their stock prices have been beaten down so far that even without future growth, just managing to survive can lift their shares substantially higher and give investors a great return.

But despite prevailing opinions to the contrary, there's nothing that makes value and growth investing mutually exclusive. Occasionally, the stocks that give investors the best value are those that have good growth prospects, while more "traditional" value stocks could in fact be overpriced and therefore not optimal investments.

What's happening now
That's an argument that Shannon Zimmerman develops in greater detail in his latest feature for the Fool's Rule Your Retirement newsletter. Among his comments, he provides several reasons why the average value investor should look beyond the usual value universe to seek out the best bargains in today's market.

To see how that proposition might work, I went to our Motley Fool CAPS community to search out companies that had the characteristics of both value and growth stocks. In particular, I looked for large-cap companies with relatively low P/E ratios and debt levels, as well as strong returns on equity and earnings growth over the past several years. I came up with several dozen promising results, including the following:

Stock

P/E

Long-Term Debt-Equity

Return on Equity

Past 5-Year Earnings Growth

Accenture (NYSE: ACN)

12.0

0

65%

19.1%

Alcon (NYSE: ACL)

16.4

0.01

46%

21%

eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY)

12.7

0

15%

28.2%

CNOOC (NYSE: CEO)

8.1

0.09

30%

31%

National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV)

6.0

0.07

20%

75.9%

Stryker (NYSE: SYK)

13.4

0

20%

17.5%

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)

12.0

0.34

19%

13.6%

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; Capital IQ, a division of Standard and Poor's.

As you can see, stocks that have had strong periods of recent growth aren't always expensive. Right now, in fact, many such stocks are trading at their cheapest levels in years -- possibly because their future five-year growth prospects are less favorable than they have been in the past

Why the disconnect?
Nevertheless, many investors can't get past the idea that value stocks and growth stocks are natural opposites. However, recent events have prompted many value investors to re-evaluate their stock-picking methods.

During 2007 and 2008, many value seekers were trapped by financial stocks, whose initial plunge turned into falling knives as the financial system came to the brink of collapse. Even with strong rebounds in recent months, long-term shareholders of financials have yet to come close to recovering all of their losses -- and many suffered permanent, near-total losses from investments in institutions like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and Bear Stearns.

The best of both worlds
Now, the right strategy may be to seek out stocks that not only trade at reasonable valuations but also are poised to become even stronger businesses in the future. During most market environments, you'll typically pay up for stocks with good growth prospects -- but the stocks referenced above, and many others like them, illustrate that you now have a unique opportunity to pick up stocks with decent growth on the cheap. That's a better value than you usually get from growing companies.

In particular, Shannon sees a select group of growth stocks outperforming both their value-oriented rivals as well as other stocks in the growth realm. His analysis -- which is available to Rule Your Retirement subscribers -- will put you on the right path to finding some of the best potential value-growth hybrid investments.

These ETFs Will Kill You

There's nothing wrong with most exchange-traded funds. ETFs typically provide indexed exposure to marketplace segments in real time -- something you don't get from the more traditional open-ended mutual fund.

However, we're starting to have a problem with a few ETFs on steroids, including Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares (NYSE: FAS), ProShares Ultra Financials (NYSE: UYG), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares (NYSE: FAZ), and ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF), which offer greater exposure to the financial-services sector.

The 3x Direxion funds strive to replicate a move that is 300% of what happens with the financial-services stocks within the Russell 1000. The ProShares Ultra vehicles may seem comparatively tame in offering just a 200% kick off the Dow Jones U.S. Financials index.

Then again, we're also talking about the banking sector, which is volatile enough on its own. Have you seen the stock charts on leaders and bleeders like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE: C)?

Buying into the financial-services sector these days is like riding a mechanical bull on its roughest setting. Buying into one of the Direxion funds is like riding the same mechanical bull during an earthquake. It's a wilder ride, but take the time to notice the rubble around you.

The failure of Direxion's controversial 3x funds should be evident right now, as both the bear and bull funds executed reverse splits this morning. The bullish wager on the financial space went through a 1-for-5 reverse split. Its bearish counterpart had to go through a more humiliating 1-for-10 reverse split.

Think about that for a moment. These are both reverse splits, financial rescues for stock prices that have fallen to low levels. This isn't a 1-for-5 reverse split on one vehicle, offset by a more conventional 5-for-1 split on the other. Both ETFs have failed, and that is problematic for fans of these concentrated ETFs and, obviously, for the companies managing them.

It's not a surprise to see regulators shaking their heads. These funds may perform as expected for a day or two, but they are proving to be compounding nightmares for anyone banking on these ETFs for longer than that.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Sirius XM: 90% Stock Decline? Here's a Raise!

Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) is locking up CEO Mel Karmazin for a few more years, regardless of the sorry performance of the satellite radio provider's stock under his reign.

Sirius XM isn't simply extending Karmazin's contract through the end of 2012. It's also bumping his annual salary 20% higher to $1.5 million and granting him a whopping 120 million options that will begin vesting at the end of next year at a strike price of $0.43 a share.

Shares of Sirius XM closed at $4.72 the day before he was introduced as CEO nearly five years ago. Yesterday's close is 90% lower than Karmazin's starting line at the company. The options can be exercised at a cruel 91% discount to the $4.72 price tag.

In short, if Karmazin is able to elevate Sirius XM's share price simply to where it was when he took over as CEO, he'll be looking at a $514.8 million profit on the options.

It doesn't seem fair, does it? Why are we rewarding failure? He's actually benefitting from the pocket-change price that creates a dirt cheap exercise price on the options, right?

Oh, please.

Karmazin is still the right guy for the job. Can you think of any seasoned radio vet who would have even attempted to merge Sirius with XM? Without the combination, one -- or perhaps both -- of the companies would have probably wiped out common stock investors in a bankruptcy reorganization.

The 90% plunge is painful, but have you scoured the handful of survivors in terrestrial radio? Shares of Cumulus Media (Nasdaq: CMLS) and Entercom (NYSE: ETM) have fallen 94% and 95%, respectively, since Karmazin was tapped to head up Sirius XM.

No, this isn't a good time to be a broadcaster.

Did Sirius overpay for Howard Stern or the NFL? It's debatable, but it's moot. Those deals were struck before Karmazin joined the company. Ultimately, the merger will make it easier to negotiate better content deals. It no longer has to bid against itself for exclusive satellite radio rights.

Did Karmazin fumble the hyped Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) application? Yes. It's overpriced in the streaming niche, and launching without Howard Stern is a mistake.

Still, who would you prefer running Sirius XM? Former XM chief Hugh Panero? Liberty's (Nasdaq: LCAPA) John Malone, with his 40% stake in the company? Any of Karmazin's cronies from Viacom (NYSE: VIA) or CBS (NYSE: CBS)?

Perish those thoughts. Karmazin's the right man for this turnaround job, especially now that Sirius XM is becoming more of a nitty-gritty operating-margins improvement story than a growth stock.

If Karmazin's able to cash in those options in a few years for hundreds of millions of dollars, there will be plenty of Sirius XM investors who will be too busy counting their own profits to care.

Well played, Sirius XM.

3 Reasons to Be Scared of These Stocks

Veteran Global Gains members know what we love about China. There's tremendous potential upside there, with many cheap stocks ready to explode in value -- especially among smaller companies.

We can never emphasize enough, however, the dangers that lurk in the world's most populous country -- the nasty traits of some Chinese businesses that make us fear and loathe them.

An emerging giant
There are nearly 2,000 public companies in China. About 450 are listed in the U.S., with that number growing all the time. And many of them are future multibaggers that will make their shareholders rich. Look around and you'll find businesses such as Universal Travel Group up nearly 300% just this year alone.

But we can't pretend these types of winners are easy to find. If you don't know the lay of the land -- the ins and outs of Chinese political structure -- you could quite literally lose a fortune.

Here are just three of the problems to be on the lookout for:

1. Hard-to-decipher financials. The Economist magazine sums it up better than I can:

The financial results of companies that global investors wish to buy into can be as unintelligible as the dialect spoken in the company town. It is said (with apparent sincerity) that some Chinese firms keep several sets of books -- one for the government, one for company records, one for foreigners and one to report what is actually going on.

In fairness, this was written a couple of years ago and Chinese financials are a bit easier to understand now. And there's no doubt that American companies also do not make available the books we'd really like to see. Even the ones we can see aren't necessarily easy to decipher -- look no further than Citigroup (NYSE: C) for a perfect example. I'll never forget one of my colleagues expressing admiration for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), while at the same time admitting he didn't know exactly what was on its balance sheet -- and this is one of the few financial giants that held up well in the credit crisis.

But there's little question that we simply can't get the same lucidity and transparency from Chinese companies that we do from domestic firms.

2. Questionable quality of earnings. Quality of earnings refers to the extent to which financial reporting can be trusted. The more conservative management is with its assumptions, the better we feel about the numbers it reports. A 2008 Barron's article relayed a pretty sobering study from RateFinancials, an independent firm that rates financial reports. Looking at the five largest recent Chinese IPOs -- including LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) and Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) -- RateFinancials found problems with "big increases in receivables, negative operating and free-cash flows, significant amounts of deferred revenues, major prepayments, and sizable long-term commitments to suppliers."

3. Poor corporate governance. China is "perceived to routinely engage in bribery when doing business abroad," according to Transparency International. And in TI's 2008 corruption report, the country falls well below any comfortable level, ranking 72nd. That doesn't mean every Chinese company is dicey, of course. India ranks 85th on the list, but for every fraudulent Satyam (NYSE: SAY), there's a shareholder-friendly outfit like HDFC Bank. But it's yet another risk to watch out for.

To sum it up, our Global Gains team warns that "Shareholders of Chinese companies should know that there is no real apparatus by which their interests are protected and that they are essentially betting on being on the same side as management and the majority shareholders -- who as often as not are branches of the government, the military, and/or the Communist Party."

And yet ...
Still, China's vast potential cannot be ignored, and investing indirectly through huge multinationals like General Electric (NYSE: GE) and ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) won't cut it. China is a small part of these companies' businesses; to realize the greatest potential from China's growth, you'll need to look to the domestic companies.

We recommend some China exposure as a part of any balanced portfolio. That's why we travel to the country yearly and are heading off again this week to meet with several companies and some prominent investors. (You can get our free, real-time dispatches from the trip by entering your email address in the box below.)

These meetings -- the ability to sit at the same table as management and see the business operations with our own eyes -- allow us to separate the good from the bad, and the quality from the corrupt.

Uncovering a double
In 2008, China Fire & Security Group seemed to have it all. Revenue had doubled in two years, the country's market for fire safety products was huge, and several high-profile industrial accidents had pressured the government to crack down on safety violators. To top it off, the government enlisted China Fire itself to help write safety legislation. Talk about the fox guarding the henhouse!

But there was a hitch: The excellent website ShareSleuth.com had blasted China Fire for some less-than-stellar corporate structure and ownership issues, and the share price had cratered 60%.

We were fortunate, however, that our Global Gains analysts had actually visited the China Fire headquarters, touring the factory and chatting in detail with management. They were convinced the company was working earnestly to address the issues, and that the beaten-down stock price was a real bargain rather than a harbinger of further deterioration. They recommended the stock in May 2008, and it more than doubled before it was sold for valuation reasons.

7 Steps to Investing Success

"Buy low, sell high."
-- Anon.

We all know this investing mantra. We all see the Dow selling at levels last seen nearly a decade ago, just post-Bubble Burst. And we all have just one question: With stocks priced so obviously "low" right now, which ones should we buy, in hopes they'll go high?

Five years ago, as shellshocked markets began digging themselves out from the rubble of an imploded e-conomy, I asked myself this question -- and found the answer in Motley Fool Hidden Gems. At the time, as a recent subscriber to the Fool's small-cap investing service, I watched Tom Gardner's favorite stocks rocket higher -- beating the market by sizable margins per pick -- and I wondered: Are these guys just lucky?

How do they crush the market's returns so convincingly, and so often? The answer to that question became a column published on this website: 7 Steps to Finding Gems.

Times change, value doesn't
Over the years, that column generated a lot of feedback from Fool readers. Initially it was positive feedback, but as the years wore on, I received more and more emails advising that the websites I cited as resources for "finding gems" had disappeared. Bankrupt, discontinued, or changed beyond recognition -- these tools had become dull.

And yet, the investing philosophy that helped rebuild my portfolio remains as sharp as ever. So today, I'm going to reconstruct that column for your benefit -- and lay out once again the seven steps to finding winning small-cap stocks, using a few new tools. Onward.

What you want to find
When searching for potential "gems," I focus on the same small-cap sphere that our team at Hidden Gems explores. My ideal investment has:

  • A market cap less than $2 billion, so it's got plenty of room to grow.
  • Little or no net debt, because bankruptcy risk is a headache no one needs.
  • Long-term growth prospects of 15% or better, a history of similar growth, and similar returns on equity -- because stagnation and inefficient management are no friends to the investor.
  • Last but not least, management with "skin in the game," as represented by insider ownership of 10% or better.

The stock market's recent revival has thinned the ranks of such prospects, but if you know where to look, you can still find a handful. So here's what we are looking for, in seven easy steps:

  1. Market cap
  2. Net cash
  3. Enterprise value
  4. Free cash flow
  5. Historical and projected earnings growth
  6. Return on equity
  7. Insider ownership

Where to find them
Nearly every metric named above can be found quickly and easily on the pages of Yahoo! Finance. Let's take an easy example -- Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) itself.

Step 1: Looking for the market cap? It's right there at the top of the page: $20.2 billion.

Step 2: Net cash? Head over to the balance sheet to find the firm's cash and its debt, subtract the latter from the former, and voila: $3.38 billion.

Step 3: Enterprise value? Easy-peasy. Subtract net cash (or add net debt) to the stock's market cap, and that's the price of "the business." In Yahoo!'s case, it works out to about $16.82 billion.

Step 4: Free cash flow is actually two steps. Yahoo!'s cash flow page will show you the firm's operating cash flow and capital expenditures; subtract the latter from the former and you will find Yahoo! generating $1.2 billion in cash profits per year.

Steps 5, 6, and 7: Yahoo! will also tell you a stock's past and projected future growth rates (here), its return on equity (here, under "Management Effectiveness"), and the level of insider ownership (here, under "Share Statistics").

What next?
Now that you know the metrics to seek, and where to find them, two paths open up. If you already have a stock you're considering buying, head on over to Yahoo! Finance and see whether it checks out. Alternatively, if you're looking for ideas, give the stock screener over at Finviz.com a whirl -- a recent test run revealed such intriguing ideas as software vendor Synaptics (Nasdaq: SYNA) and sandwich hawker Panera (Nasdaq: PNRA), both of which made the cut.

Feel free to tweak the screen a bit. Raise your target market cap and you'll find larger companies like China Mobile  (NYSE: CHL) and Apollo Group (Nasdaq: APOL) selling for cheap.

Loosen the stricture on insider ownership (because the bigger the company, the harder it is for management to afford a large stake) and both priceline.com  (Nasdaq: PCLN) and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) look ripe for picking.

Simplify, simplify
Now, I should also mention that the metrics described above are not the only ones worth ... um, mentioning. For instance, the team at Motley Fool Hidden Gems uses a more sophisticated version of free cash flow, termed "owner earnings," to gauge companies' cash-generating prowess. Similarly, return on invested capital (ROIC) is a great tool for analyzing companies that carry lots of debt.

But while more math-intensive metrics exist, I prefer to "simplify, simplify." After all, there are more than 4,500 small-cap companies currently trading in the United States -- and time's a-wastin'. The seven steps outlined above give you a quick way to start sifting through the possibilities in search of tomorrow's winners. And, if and when you decide you're ready for something more advanced, my colleagues at Hidden Gems will be happy to help out.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

BEST STOCKS:News Highlights

AirAsia Bhd (AIRA MK, Buy, TP: RM1.90) is considering selling the entire 20% shares it plans to issue to a single institutional fund or a strategic investor in a bid to reduce debt. "Some funds have come to us and want to take the whole 20%. We may do a placement to a strategic investor or a fund," chief executive officer Datuk Seri Tony Fernandes said. A strategic investor might be a private equity firm or a partner in the tourism industry, he added. He declined to be more specific, though ruled out selling a stake to a rival airline. Datuk Seri Tony Fernandes plans to meet potential investors this month and the share sale should be completed in early August. (Financial Daily)
* * * * *
AirAsia Bhd (AIRA MK, Buy, TP: RM1.90) is establishing Penang as its eighth hub with the inclusion of another international flight from the state to Hong Kong starting July 31, 2009. In a statement yesterday, AirAsia said the new service was its sixth international service from Penang after Singapore, Bangkok, Medan, Jakarta, Macau and the third international service from Hong Kong after Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok. Its other hubs are Kuala Lumpur, Johor Bahru, Kota Kinabalu, Bandung, Bali, Jakarta, Bangkok and a 'virtual hub' in Singapore. (Financial Daily)
* * * * *
KSL Holdings Bhd will be launching its first mixed property development project in the Klang Valley in the first quarter next year. Executive director Ku Hwa Seng said that the Bandar Bestari Project would be sited on 180.64ha of freehold land in Jalan Klang Banting, about 15km from the Klang town centre and would have a gross development value of RM2.5bn. (StarBiz)
* * * * *
The Naza Group of Companies has again deferred the listing of its property development arm, ruling out ant initial public offering exercise within the next 6 months, according to company officials. While news of the IPO dates back to early 2008 with several delays having been acknowledged, top officials are thus far coy about the exact timeline for the exercise, often citing unfavourable market conditions as the reason for delay. The initial share sale had targeted a market capitalisation of at least RM850m with CIMB Investment Bank reportedly being hired for the exercise. (Malaysian Reserve)
* * * * *
The contract for the submarine cable project to supply power from the Bakun Hydro-electric dam in Sarawak to the Peninsula is expected to be awarded in mid 2010. Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Datuk Peter Chin Fah Kui said that the project was estimated to cost between RM8bn and RM10bn. (StarBiz)
* * * * *
The government may unveil a new economic model for the country under Budget 2010, which will be tabled in parliament in October, following the recent economic structural reforms. Deputy Minister of Finance Datuk Chor Chee Heung said his ministry and the Economic Planning Unit (EPU) were working on a possible robust economic model to transform Malaysia from a middle income economy to one with a higher income. He added that he is unable to confirm the date for a new model to be unveiled. Chor said the new model is expected to enlarge the size of the economic cake with the participation of all ethnic groups. (Financial Daily)
* * * * *

Stocks cut losses, ending mixed Monday, as worries about the duration of the recession were tempered by a rally in select blue chips. Stocks slipped through the early afternoon as investors eyed falling oil prices and a better-than-expected report on the services sector of the economy from the Institute for Supply Management. But a late-session run up in biotechs and consumer issues helped the Dow turn positive. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 0.5% (+44.1 pts, close 8,324.9). The Nasdaq lost 0.5% (-9.1 pts, close 1,787.4) and the S&P 500 index gained 0.3% (+2.3 pts, close 898.7). In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen. U.S. light crude oil for August delivery fell US$2.68 to settle at US$64.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. (CNNmoney)
* * * * *
U.S. service industries from retailers to homebuilders shrank last month at the slowest pace in nine months, as measures of new orders and employment increased. The Institute for Supply Management's index of non- manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90% of the economy, rose more than forecast to 47 from 44 in May, according to data from the Tempe, Arizona-based group. Readings less than 50 signal contraction. The index's third straight monthly improvement reflects signs of stabilization in housing and consumer spending and increased demand from overseas as a gauge of export orders rose to the highest level since February 2008. Still, mounting job losses and stagnant wages are likely to restrain some domestic purchases, limiting the impact of any recovery. The ISM non-manufacturing industries index of employment rose to 43.4 from 39 the prior month, and its gauge of new orders increased to 48.6 from 44.4. (Bloomberg)
* * * * *
The Bank of Japan became more optimistic about the economy in all nine regions for the first time since January 2006 and Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said exports and industrial production are recovering. "The pace of economic deterioration was slower in all regions," the central bank said in a quarterly report in Tokyo yesterday. "Most regions, however, emphasized
that their economies continued to be in a severe situation." Japan's deepest post-war recession is abating, a government index of economic health showed yesterday, yet central bank officials aren't confident the rebound will be sustained. The coincident index climbed to 86.9 in May from 86 in April, the Cabinet Office said yesterday. It was the second straight increase in the gauge, which comprises 11 indicators including factory production and retail sales. Shirakawa said while the economy will "show clearer evidence of levelling out over time," businesses and households are likely to trim spending. (Bloomberg)
* * * * *
Three Shanghai companies agreed to settle import and export contracts in yuan for the first time, as China seeks to reduce the role of the dollar in global trade. Shanghai Silk Group, Shanghai Electric Group Co. and Shanghai Huanyu Import & Export Co. signed contracts worth 14m yuan (US$2m) with customers in Hong Kong and Indonesia, Fang Xinghai, director general of the municipal government's financial services office, said at a press conference yesterday. China, Russia and India have said the world economy is too reliant on the dollar and called for changes in how US$6.5trn in foreign-exchange reserves are managed, before Group of Eight leaders meet this week. The settlement program and sales of yuan-denominated debt overseas are designed to make the currency more attractive for central banks to hold. (Bloomberg)

Monday, July 6, 2009

One Stock to Buy Today?

According to data from TowerGroup, more than half of all U.S. investors make fewer than five trades per year. At the opposite end of the spectrum, just 0.3% identify themselves as day traders who make more than three trades in a day.

You've probably heard that trading is hazardous to your wealth, and you follow the Foolish principle of buy-and-hold investing set forth by Buffett, Lynch, et al. Good for you -- you're sticking to your guns, keeping taxes and commissions low, and trying to beat the market.

But ...
When you're buying stocks both infrequently and with the intent to hold them for extended periods of time, you probably sweat the buy and sell decisions in a big way.

That's why we can't underscore enough the importance of keeping a watch list. Every investor needs a watch list -- and not just a few tickers scribbled on an envelope. We're talking about an unwieldy, expansive, and possibly color-coded endeavor.

Make every purchase count
At our Motley Fool Hidden Gems small-cap service, we add companies to our watch list every month that are candidates for our real-money portfolio. For the companies that go on the watch list, we either want a better price, or we want to see some sort of change in the business.

From there, we buy if the business improves, or if it sees a sudden and substantial drop in share price.

Enough introduction
Hornbeck Offshore Services went on my (Tim's) watch list in May 2006 after I listened to a presentation by Todd Hornbeck, the company's CEO, in New Orleans.

Here was a company making money hand over fist. As the operator of the most technologically advanced fleet of offshore supply vessels (OSVs) for large energy companies, the company possessed an important competitive advantage and was well-positioned to benefit from a long-term rise in energy prices. Finally, the CEO owned nearly 2% of shares and had his name on the door.

The stock only made it to the watch list, though, because I was worried about price.

A bit more background
Hornbeck was then trading for about 20 times earnings, and its shares had more than tripled following its 2004 IPO. Even without crunching the numbers, it was clear that the stock had gotten ahead of itself.

After all, energy is a cyclical industry, and 2006 was a boom year. What's more, Hornbeck was seeing even greater demand for its ships in the Gulf of Mexico because of damage wrought by Hurricane Katrina. The stock was priced as if this operating environment would continue indefinitely.

It didn't
Fast-forward to Jan. 11, 2007. Hornbeck stock dropped 22% in a day after the company substantially lowered fourth-quarter guidance and announced that it could cut its 2007 guidance by as much as 20%.

Of course, now our interest was piqued. Hornbeck came off the watch list and onto the whiteboard for more research.

But we didn't like what we found.

Operating OSVs is an extremely capital-intensive business. As the old saying goes, "The two happiest days of a boat owner's life are the day he buys the boat and the day he sells it." And although Hornbeck was a very profitable company, it did not spin out a lot of free cash flow. And with dayrates dropping, insurance and maintenance costs rising, and volatility in the energy sector, it wasn't clear that Hornbeck (1) wouldn't fall any further or (2) would see sufficient returns to send the stock back up.

Of course, the stock has stayed volatile. It had nearly doubled through last summer; then it got caught up in this whole market meltdown, bottoming around $10 in March; but it's nearly doubled since then, as energy prices rebounded. Still, there are no called strikes in investing.  It's probably worth waiting to see how the energy markets shake out before taking the plunge here.

Enough about Hornbeck
There are several lessons here that can make us all better investors:

  • Keep a watch list.
  • Take time to research stocks when they drop. You may find a bargain.
  • Beware of businesses that consume lots of cash. While they, like Hornbeck, can perform spectacularly during boom times, they're particularly vulnerable during lean times.

This last point is a particularly important one for investors to note. Consider, for example, the charts of MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM), Coldwater Creek (Nasdaq: CWTR), and Alaska Air (NYSE: ALK). Like Hornbeck, these stocks can see volatility partly because they spend much of their operating cash on capital expenditures. In other words, they don't have a lot of room for error.

Contrast those companies with long-haul achievers such as Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX), Express Scripts (Nasdaq: ESRX), and Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD). Partly because these companies don't have to spend most of their operating cash on capital expenditures, they can accumulate safety nets of cash, offering investors a somewhat smoother ride.

3 Reasons to Be Scared of These Stocks

Veteran Global Gains members know what we love about China. There's tremendous potential upside there, with many cheap stocks ready to explode in value -- especially among smaller companies.

We can never emphasize enough, however, the dangers that lurk in the world's most populous country -- the nasty traits of some Chinese businesses that make us fear and loathe them.

An emerging giant
There are nearly 2,000 public companies in China. About 450 are listed in the U.S., with that number growing all the time. And many of them are future multibaggers that will make their shareholders rich. Look around and you'll find businesses such as Universal Travel Group up nearly 300% just this year alone.

But we can't pretend these types of winners are easy to find. If you don't know the lay of the land -- the ins and outs of Chinese political structure -- you could quite literally lose a fortune.

Here are just three of the problems to be on the lookout for:

1. Hard-to-decipher financials. The Economist magazine sums it up better than I can:

The financial results of companies that global investors wish to buy into can be as unintelligible as the dialect spoken in the company town. It is said (with apparent sincerity) that some Chinese firms keep several sets of books -- one for the government, one for company records, one for foreigners and one to report what is actually going on.

In fairness, this was written a couple of years ago and Chinese financials are a bit easier to understand now. And there's no doubt that American companies also do not make available the books we'd really like to see. Even the ones we can see aren't necessarily easy to decipher -- look no further than Citigroup (NYSE: C) for a perfect example. I'll never forget one of my colleagues expressing admiration for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), while at the same time admitting he didn't know exactly what was on its balance sheet -- and this is one of the few financial giants that held up well in the credit crisis.

But there's little question that we simply can't get the same lucidity and transparency from Chinese companies that we do from domestic firms.

2. Questionable quality of earnings. Quality of earnings refers to the extent to which financial reporting can be trusted. The more conservative management is with its assumptions, the better we feel about the numbers it reports. A 2008 Barron's article relayed a pretty sobering study from RateFinancials, an independent firm that rates financial reports. Looking at the five largest recent Chinese IPOs -- including LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) and Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) -- RateFinancials found problems with "big increases in receivables, negative operating and free-cash flows, significant amounts of deferred revenues, major prepayments, and sizable long-term commitments to suppliers."

3. Poor corporate governance. China is "perceived to routinely engage in bribery when doing business abroad," according to Transparency International. And in TI's 2008 corruption report, the country falls well below any comfortable level, ranking 72nd. That doesn't mean every Chinese company is dicey, of course. India ranks 85th on the list, but for every fraudulent Satyam (NYSE: SAY), there's a shareholder-friendly outfit like HDFC Bank. But it's yet another risk to watch out for.

To sum it up, our Global Gains team warns that "Shareholders of Chinese companies should know that there is no real apparatus by which their interests are protected and that they are essentially betting on being on the same side as management and the majority shareholders -- who as often as not are branches of the government, the military, and/or the Communist Party."

And yet ...
Still, China's vast potential cannot be ignored, and investing indirectly through huge multinationals like General Electric (NYSE: GE) and ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) won't cut it. China is a small part of these companies' businesses; to realize the greatest potential from China's growth, you'll need to look to the domestic companies.

We recommend some China exposure as a part of any balanced portfolio. That's why we travel to the country yearly and are heading off again this week to meet with several companies and some prominent investors. (You can get our free, real-time dispatches from the trip by entering your email address in the box below.)

These meetings -- the ability to sit at the same table as management and see the business operations with our own eyes -- allow us to separate the good from the bad, and the quality from the corrupt.

Uncovering a double
In 2008, China Fire & Security Group seemed to have it all. Revenue had doubled in two years, the country's market for fire safety products was huge, and several high-profile industrial accidents had pressured the government to crack down on safety violators. To top it off, the government enlisted China Fire itself to help write safety legislation. Talk about the fox guarding the henhouse!

But there was a hitch: The excellent website ShareSleuth.com had blasted China Fire for some less-than-stellar corporate structure and ownership issues, and the share price had cratered 60%.

We were fortunate, however, that our Global Gains analysts had actually visited the China Fire headquarters, touring the factory and chatting in detail with management. They were convinced the company was working earnestly to address the issues, and that the beaten-down stock price was a real bargain rather than a harbinger of further deterioration. They recommended the stock in May 2008, and it more than doubled before it was sold for valuation reasons.

The 4 Secrets of Top Stocks

By the end of this article you're going have two stock ideas and a list of four traits that you should look for in every stock before you buy it. Indeed, if you find them all together at the same time, you will have an all-but-guaranteed market-beating long-term investment on your hands.

The problem is this: It's extremely rare to find all four of these traits together. The good news is that if it's ever going to happen, now -- as we wallow in the most treacherous bear market of the past 80 years -- is the most likely time.

One framework for success
David Winters is one of the market's top investors. He had a successful career as the chief investment officer at Franklin Mutual before setting up his own shop, Wintergreen, in 2005. Since then, his flagship Wintergreen Fund (WGRNX) has outpaced the market by three percentage points annually.

The secret to his success is no secret at all. In fact, Wintergreen has gone on record over and over again saying that when he looks at stocks, he's looking for the "trifecta." That's a ...

1) Good business ...
2) With good management ...
3) Selling at a low price.

For Winters, this checklist has led to sizeable investments in Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS).

But there's a rub
Yet you'll notice something about those three Wintergreen holdings. By most accounts they're good businesses run by good people selling for cheap in today's market. But they all face significant industry headwinds.

Wynn, for example, runs luxury hotels and casinos in Las Vegas and Macau. Traffic in both places is down substantially due to the global economic downturn, as well as recent Chinese visa restrictions in Macau.

Canadian Natural Resources is an oil exploration and production company. Unless you've been living under a rock, you know that oil prices have been sledge-hammered.

And Goldman Sachs is a financial firm that recently converted into a bank holding company. You're probably aware that it's not a good time to be a financial firm.

Alas, this is logical
This is not to say that David Winters is a daft investor who ignored these risks. Rather, it instead points out how difficult it is to find a good business with good management selling at a low price unless something is wrong. And that "something" is usually an industrywide headwind or some other big-picture issue such as looming regulation or litigation.

And while Winters has the patience to collect good businesses with good management at cheap prices and wait around for the big picture issue to resolve itself, you may not.

How you can one-up Winters
Thanks to the recent stock market decline, you can now find good businesses with good management selling at low prices that are going to benefit significant macroeconomic tailwinds if you know the right places to look.

And that's the fourth trait for your checklist: Is there a tailwind, a catalyst, or a rising tide that will help this otherwise superior-on-all-fronts stock idea achieve truly outstanding returns?

Ride this wave to profits
Consider, for example, if you'd rather own eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) or MercadoLibre (Nasdaq: MELI). Both are leaders in e-commerce, both are run by pretty good teams, and both look pretty cheap (eBay at 6 times EBITDA and MercadoLibre relative to its growth prospects).

But while eBay derives 75% of its revenue from the developed and deeply troubled economies of the U.S., the U.K., and Germany, MercadoLibre does more than 50% of its business in Brazil -- an emerging regional power that should continue to post positive GDP growth and benefit in the coming inflationary environment, thanks to its immense reserves of natural resources.

With eBay, you have headwinds; with MercadoLibre, you have tailwinds.

Similarly, would you rather own Altria (NYSE: MO) or Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM)? The companies are in the same business, have management teams from the same pedigree, and while Altria is selling at a slightly higher yield and a slightly lower earnings multiple, both seem like good deals.

Yet with Altria, you're 100% focused on the U.S. -- a market that's seeing annual cigarette consumption declines as well as rising taxes, increased regulation, and outright bans on smoking. Philip Morris International, on the other hand, is globally diversifed and dominant in emerging markets like Indonesia, where cigarette consumption is on the rise and consumers continue to switch from lower-priced cigarettes to higher-priced Marlboros.

Again, do you want to bet against the headwinds or with the tailwinds?

Go with the flow
The answer should be obvious, and while companies benefiting from macroeconomic tailwinds tend to sell at a premium to their challenged counterparts, the recent market decline has narrowed that premium and put many top companies on sale for cheap.

That's why we're so excited to be picking stocks today at Motley Fool Global Gains, and why we're particularly excited to be in China meeting with a number of promising companies. China, after all, has the potential to be the biggest global tailwind of them all, and the companies that benefit the most will be domestic Chinese firms like the ones we're meeting with all across the country.